Monday, September 26, 2016

Election Update: Polls Still "Normal" Before Biggest Debate in History

Before the first Presidential Debate tonight (which could be the biggest in history),* I wanted to point out something about the polls. As I've blogged before, I prefer to use RealClearPolitics.com polls, because they are always more accurate than any of the individual polls (something that is true in meteorology as well -- the average forecast beats the best forecaster, over time).

Despite evidence that this election is the most bizarre yet (the first failing of the WIU prediction, for example), we can take solace in the numbers. The polls are not doing anything that they didn't do during the last presidential election. Look at the last 3 months of this election, compared to the 2012 election:

During that time, both experienced a primary Democrat lead, with the Republican taking lead, or getting close, three times. In 2016, it's happened further apart, but it's still happening. The 2012 RCP poll correctly predicted Obama would win by 0.7%, when in reality it ended up to be 3.9% (the reading on September 30th, which indicates that "October Surprises" may be a thing of the past. However, I think there is the likelihood that the final results could further apart than the RCP final numbers (because the voting public may end up different than the "likely voters" due to polarization of politics) -- probably enough for me to not have the confidence in the poll that I did last election.

*The numbers to beat are 80 million, the biggest debate to-date (1980's Reagan vs. Carter), and 114 million, the biggest television airing to date (Superbowl 2015). The tricky thing is that some potential TV viewers are going to move over to the Internet side of things, as this debate will be broadcast on many websites and Social Media apps, and we'll have to decide how to count that.

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Republican Primary Graph 1/8 Update

Here's a quick analysis of the Republican Primary graphs through Jan. 8 2012 versus 2016, from RealClearPolitics.com. Yes, this is not a scientifically sound way of predicting the future, and politics truely randomly controls these players' fates, but I thought it would be neat to see where we stand this year vs. four years ago.

(I have added the fat opaque lines)

- Trump (light blue) looks a lot like Romney 2012 (light purple), as far as the steady but sure upward trend. The one difference is that Romney 2012 at was surpassed three times by Perry, Cain, and Gingrich, while Trump has remained undefeated.

- The trail-off of Carson 2016 looks a lot like Cain 2012 (both pink).

- The rise of Cruz 2016 is interesting and did not have a parallel in 2012.

- The nomination certainly looks much more decided for 2016, at least as far as the graphs are concerned. By this point in 2012, we were very undecided.

NOTE: I started this blog on the 8th but am only posting it today, on the 24th. Fortunately, literally nothing has changed -- all players have leveled out:

What happened after January 8, 2012? Gingrich beat Romney a second time around Groundhog Day (ironic) and Santorum beat Romney in late February. After that, the fate was sealed.

Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Terrifying Nightmare About Work

- Saw walls ripple and and floors shake, booming sounds - Looked at radar, saw static storm, suggested gust front - Went outside, was windy but couldn't find damage - Went back inside: "The walls are gonna go!" - Ceeling falls down in SW corner; I run towards NW corner but the back wall starts to come down - I run towards a pillar on the W side, hug it, building collapses around me - Days later we have PTSD to go into the Operations area, keep getting spooked by the temporary construction

Wednesday, December 2, 2015

President Gingrich

In the 2016 Republican Primaries, Trump's back up as Carson's down, but there's still plenty of time for things to change. This time in the 2012 election, we were gearing up for President Gingrich! POLL AVERAGES: RealClearPolitics

Wednesday, October 21, 2015

Great Scott! We're in 2015, Marty!

UPDATE: I've added some additional thoughts at the bottom, after seeing some impressive ad campaigns during the day.

They day has arrived. In the movie "Back to the Future II," the plot had Doc Emmit and Marty McFly going 30 years into the future... that date was October 21, 2015.

I've blogged more about how the movie got up-to-the-second weather forecasts on your wristwatch correctly over on my AccuWeather.com blog. Here, I'll gush a little more here about the Trilogy, which we'll be watching tonight with my stepdaughter and parents-in-law.

To me, the first movie, showing in 1985 (I can still remember seeing it in the theater!) was one of the greatest movies of all-time (it's #47 on IMDB but shares a rating with other 8.5 movies which are as high as #29). Marty McFly was the ultimate role model to 11-year-old me. He defeated the bullies, got the girl, and did it all with a crazy scientist wearing a Hawaiian shirt who harnesses THE WEATHER for time travel in an insane sports car. Are you kidding me?

I'm disappointed they didn't remake the movie -- in a year when so many other 80s and 90s films/series are being resurrected, but I understand why -- Michael J. Fox is struggling with Parkinsons and Christopher Lloyd -- my God how is that man still alive? And for the original movie, so many things came together to make the perfect film -- nothing, even with today's movie effects, could do it justice.

CollegeHumor, by the way, has made a hilarious spoof of how Doc & Marty would *really* feel if they were in the actual 2015:

Universal has also posted a "new" message from Doc Brown:

10/21/15! The Future is NOW! Doc Brown has a special message just for you. #BTTF2015

Posted by Back to the Future Trilogy on Tuesday, October 20, 2015

Needless, to say, the anniversary has been heavily handled by advertisers (myself included)... USA Today decided to reproduce the front page from the movie as a wrapper for today's paper (brilliant):

And although Toyota is offering a "Back to the Future" truck (as seen in the first movie), perhaps the most impressive advertising campaign is the one they fully executed with scenes from the movies, to introduce their first fuel-cell car:

Well done, Toyota, well done.

Wednesday, October 14, 2015

It's the Bozo Filter, Stupid.

I read, with amusement tonight, this article "Fuming Bernie supporters: Why is CNN deleting our comments?" As a long-time Moderator of Facebook Pages and other Forums, I hear this "censoring comments" claim everyday, and I know what's going on "behind the curtain." TRUST ME: There's no conspiracy.

There are actually three different technical events that could be going on, when you're dealing with Facebook Comments -- either on a Fan Page, or on a website:

1: Facebook hides comments that they believe are obscene, automatically and programmatically. Trust me, this is a big help for the Facebook Page's moderators -- who can restore any comments that got accidentally hidden by the filters, without letting the spammers get their SEO, or letting obscene comments start off-topic, unnecessary flame wars that don't add to the conversations and weaken the brand.

The moderators can also create their own list of "trigger" words that temporarily hide suspicious posts until they can be approved or removed. For example, I like to keep words like "paycheck" in my filter list to filter out spam. Things that indicate that people are going down the conspiracy rabbit hole can also be helpful.

The technical way that these filters work are that the person who posted the offending comment (and the moderator) can ALWAYS see the comment, even (in most situations) if they are banned completely from the system. This is called a "bozo filter" and it's one of the most brilliant inventions on user discussion boards. The person thinks they posted their comment successfully, but they never get any responses, which teaches them that it isn't worth their time (trolls are, after all, only there to get a rise out of people). (It also avoids a confrontation with / retribution to the Moderators, which is a big pain in our collective ass).

What I'm saying is: If the system is working correctly (programmatically speaking) you wouldn't know that your comment has been hidden. If there's a bug in the code, or a server has a hiccup, see #2.

2: The second problem is that Facebook's servers are out of sync. It's challenging to keep millions of databases on millions of computers in sync. If you post a comment then immediately reload, you're guaranteed to be on a different server. They should sync within seconds but that's only in a perfect world and comments on websites are probably not at the top of Facebook's priority list.

3: Thirdly, and this is a "feature" on Facebook's end -- when you get a Notification on Facebook that someone has replied to your comment, you'll sometimes get directed to a page which shows ONLY their comment -- this is an attempt to help you more easily locate the comments, but it sometimes freaks people out and they think all other comments are deleted. If you do see most comments, but not yours, see #2.

Conspiracies are great way to make you the poster feel smarter, but Occam's Razor always overrides them. Is it more likely CNN has employed hundreds of censors to delete each Bernie Sander's comment, or that Facebook, the largest computer server farm in the world, has some issues keeping up with the comments in a plugin on a website that isn't even theirs?

Even if there were a conspiracy, and CNN was censoring comments, the commenters have no legal leg to stand on. Commenters have previously agreed to both CNN's and Facebook's terms & conditions before commenting -- there is no "freedom of speech" when you're on a private website, you're playing by their rules (not by the government's). If you're posting something threatening or obscene, they have every right not to show that, and writing something reasonable as your second sentence doesn't buy you a get-out-of-jail-free ticket.

*"It's the economy, stupid" is a slight variation of the phrase "The economy, stupid" which James Carville had coined as a campaign strategist of Bill Clinton's successful 1992 presidential campaign against sitting president George H. W. Bush.

Thursday, June 4, 2015

The Weekend of the Jesse Has Begun

41 years ago tomorrow morning, at 9:54 AM, I was born unto this world. As such, I'm taking a 3-day weekend this week, and upon changing my Facebook profile picture to "Baby Jesse," I declare that the Weekend of the Jesse has begun.

To me, it's less about celebrating my birthday and more about making this MY day. I have so many hobbies that I treasure my time away from work. This weekend I aim to dip back into the archives of my childhood and remember my former glory. Organize some digital photos and files. Scan in some old photos, digitize some old tapes. Buy some new music. Add in some good food for good measure, maybe a trip to the Drive-In or the movies with the family this weekend, and I'll have a blast.