Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Republican Primary Graph 1/8 Update

Here's a quick analysis of the Republican Primary graphs through Jan. 8 2012 versus 2016, from RealClearPolitics.com. Yes, this is not a scientifically sound way of predicting the future, and politics truely randomly controls these players' fates, but I thought it would be neat to see where we stand this year vs. four years ago.

(I have added the fat opaque lines)

- Trump (light blue) looks a lot like Romney 2012 (light purple), as far as the steady but sure upward trend. The one difference is that Romney 2012 at was surpassed three times by Perry, Cain, and Gingrich, while Trump has remained undefeated.

- The trail-off of Carson 2016 looks a lot like Cain 2012 (both pink).

- The rise of Cruz 2016 is interesting and did not have a parallel in 2012.

- The nomination certainly looks much more decided for 2016, at least as far as the graphs are concerned. By this point in 2012, we were very undecided.

NOTE: I started this blog on the 8th but am only posting it today, on the 24th. Fortunately, literally nothing has changed -- all players have leveled out:

What happened after January 8, 2012? Gingrich beat Romney a second time around Groundhog Day (ironic) and Santorum beat Romney in late February. After that, the fate was sealed.