1 Week Left to Election 2016; 7 Shoo-In Predictors!

Well, ladies & gentlemen... the bewitching hour is close at hand. No, wait, that was last night. Tonight, we're 1 WEEK from the most contentious Presidential Election in U.S. history. over 22,000,000 people have already voted (about 15% of the last turnout) and that number may hit 50 million before election day. One week from tonight, history will be made (one way or another), and we may know the results earlier than ever.

The race is as close as it's been this season -- and we may be headed for an Electoral/Popular vote split!

Here are tonight's predictions from people who have been right before! 

- Real Clear Politics

PROS: I have trusted this website's Poll Average since they jumped on the scene in 2004.
CONS: Polls aren't always right (see bottom)

- PredictIt Gambling Site

PROS: Nothing's more accurate than people putting a bet on something
CONS: Or is it?

-  Nate Silver's 538:










PROS: Correctly predicted presidential election outcome of 2008 & 2012 in 49 & 50 of 50 states.
CONS: Statistician failed to predict Trump's primary victory


- Artificial Intelligence: (Oct. 28th)

PROS: Correctly predicted presidential election outcomes in 2004, 2008 and 2012.
CONS: Doesn't take sentiment into account (LOL)


- Some Random College Professor (Oct. 28th)

PROS: Correctly predicted the last 8 presidential election outcomes
CONS: Criteria, hair style, and dress were defined in 1984 and haven't changed since.


- Halloween Masks (Aug. 25th)

PROS: Correctly predicted the last 5 presidential election outcomes
CONS: Have to wear mask from one of these jokers


- New York Times Upshot (Polls)

PROS: Uses actual data
CONS: Popular, Not Electoral, and Polls aren't always right (see below)

You will find more statistics at Statista

Election Update: Trump Running out of Time, or is it Math?

Despite the proverbial "October Surprises" on both sides (especially Trump's), the polls for both candidates for President 2016 have continued to follow the same waxing and waning that I talked about a month ago -- the same mathematical sine wave pattern, if you will. I believe this proves again that the polls follow the same ups and downs despite the "unique" candidates we have this year.

This has been similar to 2012's presidential election with one exception -- the last month of 2012 was a dead heat -- a problem we don't seem to have this year. If we assume the sine wave pattern will continue through election day (Nov. 8), Donald Trump is running out of time. Looking at the RealClearPolitics polls for both 2016 and 2012, or even 2008, we see a consistent sine wave.

The distance between close race numbers (wavelength) was about 30-40 days for 2012, and a decreasing wavelength in 2016 from 90 to 54 days. Extrapolating the 2016 trend indicates that we'll be back to a close race within 30-52 days -- which is exactly how much time we have left before the election. I think it's possible we may end up with close polls on election day, just like we did in 2012 (but not in 2008), even though the current trends and news don't support that. You can even see the sine wav in the Predict it gambling website, though the data doesn't go far enough back to find a wavelength.

As I stated last time, I do believe this could be a year that the polls don't match the voting -- but I can't tell whether that will favor Clinton or Trump camps -- both may come out in high numbers to "vote against the other candidate." Add that to who stays home because they hate both candidates, and this could get interesting.

Election Update: Polls Still "Normal" Before Biggest Debate in History

Before the first Presidential Debate tonight (which could be the biggest in history),* I wanted to point out something about the polls. As I've blogged before, I prefer to use RealClearPolitics.com polls, because they are always more accurate than any of the individual polls (something that is true in meteorology as well -- the average forecast beats the best forecaster, over time).

Despite evidence that this election is the most bizarre yet (the first failing of the WIU prediction, for example), we can take solace in the numbers. The polls are not doing anything that they didn't do during the last presidential election. Look at the last 3 months of this election, compared to the 2012 election:

During that time, both experienced a primary Democrat lead, with the Republican taking lead, or getting close, three times. In 2016, it's happened further apart, but it's still happening. The 2012 RCP poll correctly predicted Obama would win by 0.7%, when in reality it ended up to be 3.9% (the reading on September 30th, which indicates that "October Surprises" may be a thing of the past. However, I think there is the likelihood that the final results could further apart than the RCP final numbers (because the voting public may end up different than the "likely voters" due to polarization of politics) -- probably enough for me to not have the confidence in the poll that I did last election.

*The numbers to beat are 80 million, the biggest debate to-date (1980's Reagan vs. Carter), and 114 million, the biggest television airing to date (Superbowl 2015). The tricky thing is that some potential TV viewers are going to move over to the Internet side of things, as this debate will be broadcast on many websites and Social Media apps, and we'll have to decide how to count that.

Republican Primary Graph 1/8 Update

Here's a quick analysis of the Republican Primary graphs through Jan. 8 2012 versus 2016, from RealClearPolitics.com. Yes, this is not a scientifically sound way of predicting the future, and politics truely randomly controls these players' fates, but I thought it would be neat to see where we stand this year vs. four years ago.

(I have added the fat opaque lines)

- Trump (light blue) looks a lot like Romney 2012 (light purple), as far as the steady but sure upward trend. The one difference is that Romney 2012 at was surpassed three times by Perry, Cain, and Gingrich, while Trump has remained undefeated.

- The trail-off of Carson 2016 looks a lot like Cain 2012 (both pink).

- The rise of Cruz 2016 is interesting and did not have a parallel in 2012.

- The nomination certainly looks much more decided for 2016, at least as far as the graphs are concerned. By this point in 2012, we were very undecided.

NOTE: I started this blog on the 8th but am only posting it today, on the 24th. Fortunately, literally nothing has changed -- all players have leveled out:

What happened after January 8, 2012? Gingrich beat Romney a second time around Groundhog Day (ironic) and Santorum beat Romney in late February. After that, the fate was sealed.

Terrifying Nightmare About Work

- Saw walls ripple and and floors shake, booming sounds - Looked at radar, saw static storm, suggested gust front - Went outside, was windy but couldn't find damage - Went back inside: "The walls are gonna go!" - Ceeling falls down in SW corner; I run towards NW corner but the back wall starts to come down - I run towards a pillar on the W side, hug it, building collapses around me - Days later we have PTSD to go into the Operations area, keep getting spooked by the temporary construction

President Gingrich

In the 2016 Republican Primaries, Trump's back up as Carson's down, but there's still plenty of time for things to change. This time in the 2012 election, we were gearing up for President Gingrich! POLL AVERAGES: RealClearPolitics

Great Scott! We're in 2015, Marty!

UPDATE: I've added some additional thoughts at the bottom, after seeing some impressive ad campaigns during the day.

They day has arrived. In the movie "Back to the Future II," the plot had Doc Emmit and Marty McFly going 30 years into the future... that date was October 21, 2015.

I've blogged more about how the movie got up-to-the-second weather forecasts on your wristwatch correctly over on my AccuWeather.com blog. Here, I'll gush a little more here about the Trilogy, which we'll be watching tonight with my stepdaughter and parents-in-law.

To me, the first movie, showing in 1985 (I can still remember seeing it in the theater!) was one of the greatest movies of all-time (it's #47 on IMDB but shares a rating with other 8.5 movies which are as high as #29). Marty McFly was the ultimate role model to 11-year-old me. He defeated the bullies, got the girl, and did it all with a crazy scientist wearing a Hawaiian shirt who harnesses THE WEATHER for time travel in an insane sports car. Are you kidding me?

I'm disappointed they didn't remake the movie -- in a year when so many other 80s and 90s films/series are being resurrected, but I understand why -- Michael J. Fox is struggling with Parkinsons and Christopher Lloyd -- my God how is that man still alive? And for the original movie, so many things came together to make the perfect film -- nothing, even with today's movie effects, could do it justice.

CollegeHumor, by the way, has made a hilarious spoof of how Doc & Marty would *really* feel if they were in the actual 2015:

Universal has also posted a "new" message from Doc Brown:

10/21/15! The Future is NOW! Doc Brown has a special message just for you. #BTTF2015

Posted by Back to the Future Trilogy on Tuesday, October 20, 2015

Needless, to say, the anniversary has been heavily handled by advertisers (myself included)... USA Today decided to reproduce the front page from the movie as a wrapper for today's paper (brilliant):

And although Toyota is offering a "Back to the Future" truck (as seen in the first movie), perhaps the most impressive advertising campaign is the one they fully executed with scenes from the movies, to introduce their first fuel-cell car:

Well done, Toyota, well done.